Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
