Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
